To gather ideas and opinions about SANParks’ vision, we connected with diverse stakeholders in meetings and workshops across the country. This gave South Africans from all walks of life an opportunity to give their opinions about the future of conservation and the role that SANParks can play in supporting this desired future.

As a core step in this process, we developed various scenarios – stories of what may possibly be – to inform our thinking about the desired future.

Here is a summary of that process.

Who we spoke to

We collected very valuable insight from a wide range of stakeholders, including community members, traditional leaders and healers, youth, specialists, individuals and organisations involved in conservation, those in tourism, volunteers, businesses, private and public sector, futurists, heritage specialists, and marine specialists.

Our Planning Method

To plan, we used a method called Scenario Development to create stories about different possible futures. This approach looks at where we want to be and allows us to then carefully plan how we can achieve this — allowing for a more focused and intentional planning process.

What We Know

What We See Happening

What We Don’t Know

What We Need to Think About and Plan For

During the process of gathering information that will shape our plans, we see things that we know, there are trends we note and important things we need to address. We can plan for the things that we are sure of, and we know. This we always include in our strategic planning. There are also things that we see happening – these emerging trends that will most probably impact us in future. Even when we plan carefully, it is still possible that unexpected things can happen and cause a lot of harm. We must be realistic and know that some changes are impossible to predict, so we need to be ready to act and respond quickly in a crisis.

When we make plans for the future, we carefully look at things that we are unsure about, because they can have a large impact on our plans — especially because we do not know (at this time) how they will be attended to and resolved. Because we do not know how they will turn out, they could change the future of the landscape in many ways.

We must know where we are and where we are going

The origins of SANParks can be traced back to the establishment of the Kruger National Park, almost 100 years ago.  It was established to protect the country’s unique and wide range of plant and animal life. SANParks also promotes tourism and supports social and economic growth — especially for under-served communities.

The Findings

Many common themes and concerns emerged in our stakeholder engagements and were used to shape possible scenarios of the future.

Key themes that emerged were:

• Cultural and Social: Conservation integrates cultural and social aspects, valuing heritage’s role in identity and well-being. Nature activities enhance spirituality, health, and environmental connection, guided by indigenous knowledge for sustainability and preserving natural spaces to renew people’s bond with nature.
• Security and Conservation: SANParks is crucial in conserving ecosystems, species, and biospheres, tackling climate change impacts to enhance biodiversity resilience and sustainable practices. Embracing living landscapes supports biodiversity amid human activities. Risks like wildlife crime jeopardise conservation progress.
• Technological Advancements: Technology’s rapid advancement drives conservation innovation. AI, augmented reality, genetics, and security tools bolster ecosystem management, ensuring scientific integrity amid climate scepticism, safeguarding biodiversity, and promoting sustainability.
• Tourism and Leisure: Eco-tourism evolves with diverse visitor interests, funding conservation through active participation. Parks offer immersive activities like WiFi, meeting varied expectations, enhancing satisfaction, and advancing sustainability.
• Decision-making and science: Conservation requires sustainable resource sharing and acknowledges parks’ societal and economic impacts. Integrating Indigenous Knowledge Systems with scientific methods fosters community involvement, empowering traditional leaders for inclusive conservation planning and effective strategies.

Developing scenarios

Working with these themes, we developed a number of scenarios or stories about different future situations. This helps us think about and plan for what might happen, so we’re ready for good or bad outcomes.

The scenarios are:

• Scenario 1: Collapse
• Scenario 2: Keeping things as they are
• Scenario 3: Slowly but surely improve
• Scenario 4: Transformation and big organisational shifts
• Scenario 5: Only for the people, only by the people
• Scenario 6: If it pays, it stays
• Scenario 7: The preferred scenario

Possible Stories or Scenarios

The future is full of unknowns, and there are many ways it could unfold. It is important to think about these possibilities to understand what might bring about significant changes and impact our plans. By exploring these other stories of the future, we have a better chance to adapt and stay on track, even when things do not go as expected.  This not only helps us make better decisions but also prepares us for unexpected challenges.

In each of these stories, there are things to avoid but there may be positives to consider.

Scenario 1: Collapse

In this worst-case scenario, SANParks will collapse by 2040 due to insufficient funding and corruption at all levels. Most parks become neglected, leading to large-scale poaching and development, resulting in significant biodiversity and heritage loss. The work that SANParks do, only benefits select areas and individuals. Stakeholders only have their own interests at heart.  Many SANParks staff resign and the funding priorities of the government shift elsewhere. The things that drive this scenario include limited socio-economic opportunities, lack of support, and an organisation that is inflexible when facing external pressures. The primary driver is the lack of political will and support for conservation. When this story plays out, you will see reduced conservation progress, biodiversity loss, staff leaving, inefficiencies, and declining public support. This scenario is not viable due to the harm it causes to people and nature.

Scenario 2: Keeping things as they are

In this scenario, SANParks makes no significant changes.  By 2040 it has fallen behind due to a lack of agility and planning. Climate change means that droughts increase, straining water resources. Other conservation agencies combat poaching and manage parks with new technologies, but SANParks does not, resulting in persistent and increased poaching. SANParks staff are demotivated because poachers have better technology than they do. Tourism declines as SANParks fails to meet the changes in traveller needs, leading to reduced income. Invasive species spread unchecked, disrupting ecosystems and providing no benefits to nearby communities. This scenario is driven by resistance to change and a lack of innovative funding strategies. The signs that we are on this route, include stagnant performance, unmotivated staff, and deteriorating tourism services. This scenario is not viable due to its negative consequences for the organisation and slow decline in conservation.

Scenario 3: Slowly but surely improve

In this scenario, SANParks gradually implements changes to avoid collapse, addressing problems as they arise without planning ahead. In this scenario, it is quite possible, that by 2040, SANParks can be a world leader in conservation, focusing on creating large living landscapes that integrate with local communities. The goal of developing Megal Living Landscapes drives progress, though the global target of having 30% of land and 30% of marine areas protected is missed due to slow action. Stakeholder involvement improves slowly but surely, with innovations such as the establishment of a youth council, appointing traditional leaders on the Board, and conservation being included in school curriculums. Tourism and infrastructure are maintained, and natural and heritage conservation continues to take place and on the face of it, all seems well.  This scenario is driven by the need for social support and connection, focusing on local communities with political backing. There is some organizational flexibility, but decisions are very slow to be implemented. This scenario has positives to take note of, but it is unlikely that the Vision 2040 goals will be achieved in time and there may be areas of slow and continual decline.

Scenario 4: Transformation and big organisational shifts

By 2040, some big organisational changes will take place, and SANParks will split into two entities: a successful tourism business and a government-funded conservation service. Tourism profits support conservation, reflecting a trend that we also see in the improvement of other public entities in 2040. SANParks embraces technology, becoming a global leader in conservation, heritage, and tourism technology. This transformation is driven by operational flexibility and a financial model that is supported by carefully chosen technologies. However, rapid technology adoption leaves some people behind due to their lack of skills or access, and job losses widen the gap between tech haves and have-nots. Local communities struggle to keep pace, and tourism takes on a “Disney” feel with holograms and augmented reality, appealing to younger visitors but alienating older ones. Monitoring business and technology integration, employee satisfaction, and customer feedback is crucial to ensure a people-focused approach rather than one driven solely by technology or business.  This scenario points out several very positive possibilities but leaving communities and people behind while we grow, is not an option.

Scenario 5: Only for the people, only by the people

In this scenario, by 2040, SANParks will adopt a community-focused model where parks are managed by local communities through public-private partnerships, contracted parks, and private community land holdings. Communities handle conservation using government funds and revenue generated from the sustainable use of plant and animal life. Building trust, training, and empowering communities become SANParks’ main focus. Benefits arising from protected areas and tourism go directly to locals. The organization works with different models for each area, partnering with local leaders and communities. This model is driven by political will, social and economic opportunities derived from parks, nature and tourism, and community support. Building trust is a slow process, but over time, conflicts decrease as understanding and trust grow. Community-driven conservation is feasible, evidenced by successful indigenous and community conservation areas worldwide.

There are numerous positives in this scenario. SANParks must, however, continue to focus on addressing community demands and also ensure that funding is spread to all parks, especially those less profitable.  This scenario highlights the need to closely monitor potential conflicts, deal with funding shifts, and ensure political support.

Scenario 6: If it pays, it stays

By 2040, SANParks prioritizes profit over conservation with an “if it pays, it stays” approach, neglecting its duties to communities and conservation. The focus on profit leads to the dominance of private parks controlled by powerful groups, sidelining smaller entities. Access to parks becomes exclusive to the wealthy, and the rapid technological advancements are geared towards profit rather than scientific research for improved decision-making. SANParks shifts to a profit-driven model, selling scientific and traditional knowledge, ignoring local communities, and losing their support, resulting in widespread anger. This scenario is driven by a flexible organization, influential groups, and a profit-centric business model. The approach leads to neglect of plant and animal life, potentially causing extinctions and allowing powerful groups with deep pockets to dominate. Strong political support from businesses, while ignoring community needs, facilitates this shift. Existing examples of exclusive and profitable parks show that this scenario is possible.  However, signs that we are headed down this path are when powerful businesses influence the decisions that SANParks make, species disappear, and natural resources are over-exploited, showing a focus on making money rather than protecting nature.

Scenario 7: The preferred scenario

By 2040, all people in South Africa will live in harmony with nature, with our country becoming a model for other countries to follow. SANParks builds unity with and within communities creating strong partnerships and establishing relationships much wider than the footprint of national parks.

Nature, heritage, and conservation are important to every South African, and link healthy people with thriving nature. Large areas of land, with national parks at the centre, other conservation landscapes, and even areas without legal or formal protection covering ecological, cultural, and heritage sites, bring communities together.

To achieve Vision 2040, SANParks makes big changes and now champions conservation within these large landscapes by facilitating and linking role-players. Even areas where people live are included in Mega Living Landscapes to ensure they actively participate in nature and conservation efforts and can benefit from the opportunities offered by the eco-tourism and biodiversity economy.  We also take great care of cultural heritage sites. We know that protecting these areas is important for communities, our identity, and national pride and has a key role in connecting spiritually with our past. We make sure that more people can visit historical sites and learn from them.

SANParks champions new and innovative ways to increase the protection of plant and animal life across large tracts of land. Within Mega Living Landscapes diverse wildlife and ecosystems are helping us to reverse the loss of plant and animal species. All South Africans see the economic, spiritual and health benefits of nature conservation. This approach makes communities key to conservation efforts, reversing biodiversity loss and combating poaching.

National Parks attract more visitors, both locally and from other countries. This is brought about by expanding the type and number of tourist offerings we have and building a network of leisure and adventure opportunities outside national parks, SANParks also leads in the international Eco- and Heritage Experience Tourism Economy. While some want to see the traditional Big 7 in their natural environment, many discover other offerings like stargazing and cultural heritage events. In Mega Living Landscapes, adventure tourism is an essential component of eco-tourism, offering opportunities for wilderness hiking, camping, and river rafting in pristine natural areas. Parks offer seamless experiences with immersive visitor centres and cutting-edge payment technology, allowing visitors to contribute to conservation projects, and boosting revenue.

In partnership with many stakeholders, SANParks is now co-managed and supported by government, communities and business leaders.

These partnerships support the protection of plant and animal life, heritage conservation, and tourism. This contributes to the well-being of people and the environment.

SANParks understands and embraces its role as the biggest conservation agency in the country, supporting all other public organisations to create a country-wide network of Mega Living Landscapes with high levels of protection and thriving biodiversity.

To do this, SANParks has reviewed its business model, to play this leading role as a champion of large living landscapes across the country. The organisation recognises how important it is to include as many stakeholders as possible, both locally and around the world, in our efforts, including other spheres of government. Our business model ensures that we make enough money to champion large living landscapes across South Africa.

SANParks will be a global leader in research and innovation with strong international partnerships.

Technology will be used to create new tourism experiences which can include things like Virtual Reality. We incorporate Indigenous Knowledge and citizen science in decision-making. Technology is also used to create better connections and relationships between people and the natural environment.

Our organisation is a leader in scientific excellence, and it drives conservation education in technology, finance, and community engagement. We attract students from around the world so that they can learn about nature and apply it to their areas of study, contributing to global conservation efforts.

SANParks is recognised around the world and people want to work for the organisation. We are known for our talented staff and leaders. The organisation makes money through research services for parks around the world, prioritising talent attraction and retention. Flexible work policies allow remote living and work within parks. We recognise that our people will drive our ideal future and that they are an important part of SANParks.

Mega Living Landscapes helps us to increase climate change resilience because they incorporate diverse ecosystems, nature-friendly farming practices, and natural infrastructure. SANParks minimizes its own footprint and can handle the ongoing effects of climate change by using adaptive and flexible management practices.

We installed renewable energy solutions in all parks and have adopted different types of technology to reach net zero targets. Simple actions like banning bins and plastic bags, and having visitors carry out their rubbish, also help meet our goals. Although climate change is still a big problem around the world, our strategies are to protect land and marine areas and support international efforts to minimise the impacts of climate change. We realise the importance of continuously adjusting our management strategies and involving local communities in finding solutions that can withstand and mitigate the effects of climate change.

SANParks now accesses different sources of funding to support itself without needing too much help from the government to reach Vision 2040. This funding is innovative and includes Green Bonds, trading in carbon credits, various types and sources of donor funding, green loans and investment funds. By using resources wisely, we help ourselves and our communities — benefitting South Africans.

Now what?

The SANParks Board and Management have taken the co-created preferred story and developed an instrument to implement this inspiring vision.

Join us online on 26 September 2024 for the Vision 2040 reveal.